CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC
(by Chris Tharp)
When I moved to South Korea in 2004, I was fully aware that this particular rocky outcropping of Asia was a dangerous place to call home. Sure, on the surface, day-to-day, this country is one of the safest places I could possibly be, but I knew well that the war—which never technically ended—could blast back up at any moment. Still, it had been fifty years of relative peace since that meat grinder of a conflict, so I was willing to roll the dice.
Since that time there have been numerous rumblings and outright incidents that have pushed things to the edge. There have been exchanges of live fire across the DMZ; in 2008 a South Korean tourist was shot and killed by a Northern soldier after she wandered into a “restricted area” at a mountain resort just over the border; in 2010, a North Korean sub sank the Southern naval vessel “Cheonan,” killing 46 sailors; later that year the North launched an artillery attack on the South’s Yeonpyeong Island, killing four, with the South returning fire and taking out a few North Korean soldiers of their own.
On all of these occasions things came perilously close to truly kicking off, but each time things simmered down and things went back to business as usual. I suspect that, here in the South at least, there is just too much to lose. This is a rich country where a lot of people are gorging on the fruits of prosperity. Who wants to risk it all over a few face-losing incidents? It’s just the price of doing business.
Each time things boil up here I am faced with the same questions from folks back home. They ask me if I’m worried. I tell them that I’m “cautiously pessimistic,” but not overly concerned. They wonder about the locals, how the actual South Koreans I know feel about things. I tell them that over the decades most people have inured themselves to the bellicosity of the North, that despite some shocking flare-ups, people tend to carry on as if nothing out of the ordinary is happening. And even if they are panicking inside, they tend not to show it. When asking my wife about the situation just yesterday, she shrugged, sighed and said, “What can I do about it? I’ll just live my life.”
A few days ago I awoke to the news that President Donald Trump has ordered an “armada” (his word) of U.S. warships, including the carrier USS Carl Vinson, to turn around and head straight for the waters off of Korea. This comes on the eve of what most think will be North Korea’s sixth nuclear test. This comes just days after a US missile attack on Syria that seemingly reversed every policy pronouncement he had made regarding that country. This comes on the heels of several of his disturbingly hawkish tweets such as this:
“North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.”
How does he plan, exactly, to “solve the problem?”
This is what has me more concerned than I ever have been in a decade plus of living here. Donald Trump, the lightweight–the complete rube unschooled in even the junior high basics of East Asia policy and history—is making wild threats and pronouncements, backed up with the most formidable arsenal on the planet. Trump is sloppily dog paddling in waters well over his head, and is endangering the lives of all of us who live here on the peninsula. The situation in Korea is a swimming pool filled with gasoline, and he’s a drunken frat boy fucking around with a lit Roman candle.
The only good news out of this bowl of bees is that there are signs that Trump may actually have started to listen to Xi Jinping of China, who sadly seems to be on the only adult in the room. In a recent meeting, Xi had to patiently explain to Trump the history of China and Korea, how China can’t just snap its fingers and make North Korea do its bidding, how it’s a complicated situation. This seemed to open Trump’s dull toad eyes, at least for the time being.
“After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it’s not so easy,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal. “I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power [over] North Korea. … But it’s not what you would think.”
Can we breathe a sigh of relief? Perhaps. I have no illusions about North Korea. They are a criminal regime and among the worst human rights abusers on the planet, but any kind of unilateral attack by the United States will only result in catastrophic bloodshed here in Korea and perhaps beyond. Containment is the only way, and working with China is the best way to achieve this. Their patience with their “ally” in the North wore thin a long time ago. If North Korea tests another nuclear device it will only serve to drive the Chinese away.
Still, I don’t trust a US president who is so obviously unprepared for the job. I just don’t think the guy gets the real world implications of his actions, or more likely, in his gold-plated narcissistic world, he just doesn’t care.
As for me, this is my home. This is my life. I would hate to see it reduced to radioactive ruin because a mentally unbalanced man-child woke up in a pissy mood and decided to attack. And I’m not talking about Kim Jong-eun.
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